Thursday, October 11, 2007

M3 Shock

I was perusing the financial flotsam and from Minyanville to Morningstar everything seems to come back to M3. I also found the Austrian distinction Ma or M-prime as highly useful as it does in fact address 1B assets. This is slightly off-topic, but I'll get around to addressing the liquidity crisis. M3 from the Fed:

M3 consists of M2 plus (1) balances in institutional money market mutual funds;(2) large-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of $100,000 or more);(3) repurchase agreement (RP) liabilities of depository institutions, in denominations of $100,000 or more, on U.S. government and federal agency securities; and(4) Eurodollars held by U.S. addressees at foreign branches of U.S. banks worldwide and at all banking offices in the United Kingdom and Canada. Large-denomination time deposits, RPs, and Eurodollars exclude those amounts held by depository institutions,the U.S. government, foreign banks and official institutions, and money market mutual funds. Seasonally adjusted M3 is constructed by summing institutional money funds,large-denomination time deposits, RPs, and Eurodollars, each adjusted separately,and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M2.Now, that takes us as far as 2004, the trend gets worse:

So, when taken along with overall economic indicators...

Just a little food for thought...the conclusions are obvious: there's a reason the Fed stopped reporting M3. The dollar is being systematically attacked from within. It's not as conspiratorial as it sounds, there's no other way of bailing out the Investment Banks. If the Fed and ECB pull the liquidity guarantees it's 1929 all over again. Enough for this aside, I'm sure I'll come back to the M3 debacle as I go forward.

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